Telefónica CR - Key notes from 4Q12 conference call

Share buyback
The management expects to commence executing another 2% tranche of share buyback (up to 6.44 mln. shares) in the next few days. Having the experience with share buyback issues during 2012, they expect to complete the 2% tranche by the end of this year. It will depend on market conditions, price and also volumes. /slightly positive, the early launch of the buyback could be supportive for the stock in short term/

LTE spectrum auction
The company did not comment much on the ongoing LTE spectrum auction as it could break the auction rules. They said that the way the process is set means that the auction conclusion is absolutely non-visible and non-transparent. It could take a week, couple of weeks or months. Everyone of the 4 bidders have 5 withdrawal rights, which means that even that you have any offer you could withdraw it (with no penalty) and the price will go down. This makes the whole process too long. TEFO2 (321,6 CZK, 0,50%) could not comment on number of withdrawals already taken by their rivals. The company has no doubt it will use debt to pay for 4G spectrum. Thus the final price will not affect the dividends declared yesterday /neutral, LTE spectrum remains the main risk for TEFO2. Although the cost of the license will not influence the dividend prospects, the outcome may have significant impact on future dividends in case PPF will succeed in the auction/

2013 outlook
The management did not give any guidance for expected revenues this year because of the uncertainty around the 4th operator entrance. But the company aims for only limited OIBDA margin erosion. The margin decline should not be substantially different from 2012. /Neutral, although the guidance for limited margin erosion sounds OK to investors, the absolute OIBDA figure may substantially differ from last year if revenues significantly change as a result of the possible 4th operator entrance/

Overall, TEFO2 now offers a still hefty dividend yield of 9.4% and the share buyback may be supportive for the stock in short-term. Nevertheless we think the current stock price still does not reflect the risk of potential 4th player entrance. We see the auction results as a main risk for TEFO2 future prospects and dividend stability.