Yesterday the Czech koruna still did not succeed to get rid of the negative impact of the hawkish ECB press conference (last Thursday). On the other hand it did not track further losses of the Polish zloty, which has been hit by renewed speculations about snap poll, and rather stayed in a tight range 28.52–28.58 EUR/CZK all over the yesterday’s session.
For today the very good result of foreign trade balance (CZK 11.24 billion surplus) could provide some support to the Czech currency. But prevailing poor regional mood is a risk for such scenario. On the other hand expectations of further positive data later in the week (CPI, GDP) should play in favor of the koruna. Hence we expect slight gains for today and the koruna should stay under key resistance at 28.635 EUR/CZK.