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Czech Watch - 7 August 2000

7.8.2000 8:30

The Senate refused amendments to the CNB act, as ODS's senators did not bother to vote for the Senate own changes to the act. The ODS seems convinced that it will get the law through the Lower House, where it enjoys (together with Social Democrats that play the ODS's card in this issue) a clear majority. It is, however, fascinating to hear lawmakers admitting that the law they propose indeed violates the constitution, but hey will vote for it, come tide or high water. Something is rotten within the system…
The koruna was digesting a strong week on Friday and moved only marginally in a tight range around 35.30 CZK/EUR. Having seen the euro strengthening marginally vis-a-vis the dollar, the koruna gained negligibly against the dollar as well to 38.80 CZK/USD. All eyes are now on tomorrow's CPI numbers. Expectations are spread around 0.7% m-to-m inflation, where 0.5% should be driven by price deregulation.
Czech bonds fell again on Friday, the downfall was deeper than we expected. Despite the trading was bit busier than in previous days, volume traded was still deep below average. Market makers still express their bearish mood as CPI figures and government bond auction approaches. Especially the longest bonds were the most losing this day, both government and EIB issues. Some old-taxed short bonds were also sold-off and lost some basis points. Monday will probably be quiet and bearish again, with CPI figures (released on Tuesday) expectations at 0.7% m-to-m, which could be a psychological moment for another downfall.
Current benchmark prices: MoF 6.75/05 100.15-45 (-10 bps), MoF 6.30/07 95.90-20 (-45 bps), MoF 6.40/10 94.95-25 (-60 bps).

(Ondrej Schneider and Dalimil Vyskovsky)

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