The Polish zloty lost rapidly ground in early
trade on Thursday as Slovak politics and
nervousness ahead of the FED decision on
rates weighed on the entire region. Moods
improved gently as the EUR/SKK pair inched
closer and closer to the ERM-2 parity
triggering a reaction from the Slovak central
bank.
This time around however, the
intervention did little more than help stop the
zloty selling. In the afternoon the EUR/PLN
leveled off at 4.08, roughly 0.5% down
against the common currency. On the
political front, the FinMin story returned to
the spotlight for a brief moment. The court
refused to probe ex-minister Zyta Gilowska
(who was sacked last week) on the grounds
that she no longer held a public office. In
reaction PM Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz offered
the ex-FinMin to take over the deputy PM
spot. If Gilowska returns to the government
(which we think is unlikely at the moment -
the position on offer is of clearly lesser value
than the spot she held before) she would be
responsible for the government’s economic
policy and could this way undergo the
investigation on the alleged cooperation with
the socialist secret service.
Regarding today’s trading we believe the
zloty is more than likely to rebound past the
4.06 EUR/PLN mark as the market fully
discounts last night’s relatively dovish Fed
statement.
(CSOB - Investment research)