The Polish zloty followed the forint slightly
down early on Monday but managed to hold
its composure in the end and unlike the HUF
it eventually closed the day in the green at
just above 3.9650 EUR/PLN. Trading was
calm as markets eyed domestic and foreign
politics for signs of a breakthrough in the
Polish parliamentary stalemate and a
resolution of the government crisis in
Hungary.
The 2Q (historical) C/A and trade
balance data were the only worthwhile event
on the data front, and even though both
deficits were revised quite significantly
upward (to roughly 1.9% and 1.0% of GDP
from 0.4% and 0.6% respectively based on
recent monthly estimates) due among other
things to a stronger rise in imports, the
(historical) release was basically ignored by
the market. If anything, the magnitude of the
revision shows that data quality is still an
issue, even though recent corrections were
much smaller and may have sparked a bit of
optimism in this respect. Yesterday’s data
only reaffirms our cautious stance as far as
the interpretation of the past and upcoming
monthly figures is concerned.
The zloty remains locked in the strong
3.96-3.99 EUR/PLN range, and it would take
something really special for the market to
break out of the current sideways pattern.
With the eco calendar empty and domestic
politics in the shade this seems highly
unlikely at least until the ECB decision on
rates and the US payrolls later this week.
(CSOB - Investment research)