The balance of trade ended in a surplus of CZK 14.4b for September following a slight deficit in July and August. The unexpectedly high surplus for international trade comes from a slowdown in import growth, which reached the lowest figure in 17 months (7.6%). On the other hand, export growth remained robust in double-digit territory (+11%).
The favorable September results will improve the impact of foreign trade on GDP in 3Q07. The annual balance of trade is heading to come in at between CZK 65-70b. These positive results may help the crown to stay near the 27.0 crown/euro level, although we estimate the equilibrium exchange rate to be a little higher.