Industrial output - preliminary data
Actual (Apr): -23,5 % y/y
Consensus: -19 % y/y
Previous (Mar): -17,0 % y/y
Industrial production, sales and new orders all fell significantly in April, suggesting that car scrapping bonuses and other policy measures are not enough to mute the impact of the Eurozone recession on the Czech industry. We have got an indication that the Czech economy is still in recession in 2Q and no major improvement is likely to come soon.
The continuing fall in industrial production will push up unemployment and prevent wages from increasing which will weigh on household consumption. In 2009 we expect the industrial production to contract by 15 pct.