In March unemployment usually falls thanks to seasonal effects. Sectors like construction, agriculture and some services hire temporary employees, which improves the figures. However, this year the unemployment rate fell more than expected and the data show that not only seasonal factors were behind. Layoffs were relatively low and the number of vacancies increased. The improvement is likely led by recovery in industry - at the beginning of the year employment in industry is increasing significantly.
We expect the unemployment to go down further during the year as labor market should be supported by the growing economic activity that should approach the pre-recession level. The unemployment rate is seen around 8.5 pct at the end of 2011.
Actual (Mar): 9.2 %
Consensus: 9.4 %
Previous (Feb): 9.6 %