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Czech Republic: PPI driven higher by oil, metals and food

Czech Republic: PPI driven higher by oil, metals and food

17.5.2011 11:03

Producer prices continue to rise as external supply shocks did not ease. Prices of refinery products, foodstuff and metals contributed most to the increase of PPI in April. Oil price (Brent) added 10 USD and reached as high as 126 USD/barrel last month. Thus, prices of refinery production in the Czech Republic rose by 4.5%. But, events of last days showed that the commodity rally may come to an end as prices of basic commodities did not match the state of the global economy and, thus, they became vulnerable to any negative incentive. Oil prices fell significantly recently, Brent trades at 113 USD/barrel today, and inflation in prices of refinery production may ease. On the other hand, food inflation is likely to intensify as farmers’ prices continue to spike higher. Annual inflation in agricultural products already reached 31.8%, the highest reading ever. Metal prices increased by 1.2% mom, 13.1% yoy driven by a surge in prices of iron ore and coking coal. As in case of oil, metal markets seem to be somewhat overheated and prone to a correction. Prices of non-ferrous metals already corrected. Inflation in producer prices remains relatively high; however, our forecast suggests that it can be close to its peak. In the second half of the year, it could turn around and begin to decline. Weak domestic demand does not enable to pass through supply shocks into the rest of the economy. Thus, we stick to our expectation that the CNB will begin to hike rates in Q3 or Q4.

Actual (April): 0.8% mom; 6.4% yoy
Consensus: 0.6% mom; 6.2% yoy
Previous (March): 0.9% mom; 6.3% yoy

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