POSTNL: Positive decision in German competition case

The German postal regulator (Bundesnetzagentur) has determined in proceedings against First Mail Düsseldorf and Deutsche Post, in consultation with the Federal Cartel Office, that the German Postal Act has been breached in terms of pricing and non-discrimination regulations.

The decision is an important step on the path to profitability of TNT Post Germany in 2013.

International still depends on regulatory improvements
International mail becomes increasingly important to TNT and total volumes will even be higher than volumes in the Netherlands by year end. With underlying cash operating income (pre German start-up losses) positive across all countries (Italy, Germany and the UK) the international activities of TNT are on track to reach an underlying cash operating income of 1% over 2011 and 2-4% over 2015. Our estimates are in-line with mgmt guidance, (2-4% Underlying cash operating income margin by 2015; 0-1% margin in 2011). The aforementioned decision by the German postal regulator should support TNT Post Germany’s goal to become profitable in 2013, and pricing was pointed out as one of the potential upside scenario’s for International.