Hledat v komentářích
Investiční doporučení
Výsledky společností - ČR
Výsledky společností - Svět
Týdenní přehledy

Detail - články
TNT EXPRESS: 2Q11E – no good news show expected

TNT EXPRESS: 2Q11E – no good news show expected

7.7.2011 9:42

TNT Express reports 2Q11 results on Monday 1 August before market opening. This is the first time the company reports results since its split from PostNL.

Our View:
We expect results to be rather uninspiring, after an already soft 1st quarter. Furthermore, the 2nd quarter counts the least working days (62 vs 65 1-3-4th quarter) and we believe markets attention will rather be on the progress made in Brazil, the success of yield measures, the activity on the Asia-to-Europe route and EMEA volume evolution.
We see 2Q revenues at € 1,888m (€ 1,784m 2Q10), EBIT at € 54m (€ 60m 2Q10) and underlying EBIT at € 83m (€ 86m 2Q10). Our underlying EBIT estimate is split amongst EMEA (€ 106m), ASPAC (€ 0m), Americas (€ -15m), Other Networks (€ 5m) and Non-Allocated (€ -13m). We have taken into account € 10m in one-offs in Brazil relating to further restructuring.
We hope the company could provide further detail on the guidance for 2011 which now calls for modest revenues growth in EMEA (5% KBCS), Partially recovery in ASPAC and a negative revenues evolution in Americas. Underlying EBIT is guided to come in at 9% or slightly above in EMEA, a partially recovery in ASPAC and negative results with corrective measures in Americas. Our estimates are in line with the guidance provided.

We re-iterate our Hold rating since we see no short-term triggers. Underlying EBIT margins in EMEA have fallen from 12.8% over 2007 to 9.0% over 2010 with no real recovery in sight. Although management is guiding for a 10-11% mid term margin, with the European express market being highly fragmented and volume growth below that of peers, we believe management faces a challenge. The company has suffered several adverse revenue yield effects that will prove difficult to tackle in the near term.
Our € 8.2/sh TP is set as the average of our DCF-model, with 7x EV/EBIT for EMEA & Other networks (a 20% discount to peers) and 0.5x EV/Sales for emerging activities. We reiterate our Hold rating.

Nově na Patria.cz - obchodní signály na forexu podle technických indikátorů ADX, Williams R% a klouzavých průměrů!
Váš názor
Na tomto místě můžete zahájit diskusi. Zatím nebyl zadán žádný názor. Do diskuse mohou přispívat pouze přihlášení uživatelé (Přihlásit). Pokud nemáte účet, na který byste se mohli přihlásit, registrujte se zde.
Aktuální komentáře

Související komentáře
Nejčtenější zprávy dne
Nejčtenější zprávy týdne
Nejdiskutovanější zprávy týdne
Denní kalendář hlavních událostí
General Electric Co (12/16 Q4, Bef-mkt)
7:00Telia Co AB (12/16 Q4)
7:02SAP SE (12/16 Q4)
7:20Volvo AB (12/16 Q4)
7:30Daimler AG (12/16 Q4)
7:30Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (12/16 Q4)
12:30Honeywell International Inc (12/16 Q4)
13:00Moody's Corp (12/16 Q4)
13:58McDonald's Corp (12/16 Q4)