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Rising bets on the QE3 support CE currencies

Rising bets on the QE3 support CE currencies

1.9.2011 10:27

The Czech koruna underperformed its regional peers on Wednesday and posted negligible losses whereas the zloty and the forint gained about 0.5%. Regarding today's events, regional PMI’s were released. All three indicators pointed to a modest contraction in economic activity. However, the figures still remained above the key 50 points level (even though that Hungary’s PMI was only a shy of this level at 50.1 points), which signals an overall improvement in business conditions.

More specifically, although the Polish figure also unveiled slightly worse sentiment than in the previous month, it still remained well above both this year’s low that had been hit in June and 50 points level. Regarding the structure, the main driver of the Polish economic activity remains the domestic demand, whereas enterprises saw a decrease in new export orders. Clearly, today’s results illustrate the fact that Poland can, unlike its more export-oriented regional peers, much more rely on the domestic consumption.

The Czech figure at 53.4 points seems to be quite curious, especially in light of a recent development in region's main trading partner Germany. Let us remind that the key Germany's Ifo indicator fell short of expectations in August and dropped below 110 points. Nevertheless, in the Czech case, faster gains in new orders and output overshadowed weaker contribution of employment, which illustrates rising uncertainty as far as the future development of the economy is concerned.


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