The Belgian judicial experts that were appointed at the request of Deminor to investigate the break-up of the former Fortis Group have filed their final report.
The report includes a detailed chronological account of the facts between September 26, 2008 and October 6, 2008; a description of documents and information available during this period to determine the sales price of the assets; an outline of current valuation methods; and a review of the valuation documents relating to Fortis Bank and to the Dutch banking and insurance assets of the former Fortis Group.
The report is a further step forward in clarifying the circumstances surrounding the break-up of the Former Fortis group. Ageas acknowledges that the findings of the report largely coincide with the conclusion of earlier reports and related court decisions. However, Ageas does not agree with all the interpretations and conclusions provided by the expert.
In our SOP valuation we have taken a € 1bn haircut to cover for the Dutch (€ 0.6bn) and Belgian (€ 0.4bn) litigation in the event that Ageas would be held liable and have to pay a fine.
The is no immediate legal impact from the final report, but all parties concerned could try to find in it legal argumentation to file or counter new/pending claims.
We maintain our Buy rating and € 2.85 target price.