The Hungarian forint recouped part of its losses as comments from Hungarian government officials brought some hope that a deal on a new IMF loan could be reached soon. Recall that minister without portfolio Tamás Fellegi, who is to head Hungary’s delegation at the talks, said the government’s was ready to conclude an agreement as quickly as possible. It is worth noting that Fellegi leaves for Washington to meet IMF officials for talks about a new stand-by loan this weekend, while the talks should be held next week.
While the Fund might listen to Hungarian official more quietly, it seems that the EU still plays a hawkish tone. A European Commission spokesman told the Wall Street Journal yesterday that the EC would still require to change a controversial law about the central bank. At this moment the Hungarian government is not ready to make such a concession.
Interestingly, both the Czech Republic and Hungary have released industrial production data for November this morning. Both export-oriented industries posted surprising strong gains. While for instance in the case of the Czech industry some positive one-off factors could play some role, it is evident that the above mentioned gains clearly do not track the weak regional PMI’s. It rather seems that the (currently strong) German Ifo is a better leading indicator for both Czech and Hungarian industrial output.