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ASMI: 4Q11E – a brighter outlook

ASMI: 4Q11E – a brighter outlook

5.3.2012 10:58

ASMI and ASMPT will publish their 4Q11 results on Tuesday 6 March at midnight, followed by a conf call on Wednesday at 3pm CET. We expect sequential sales declines in FE and BE, but we have upped our 2012 estimates for both segments after fairly upbeat spending signals from major semi players. We reiterate our Accumulate rating but have raised our target to € 33 from € 23.

Our View:
4Q11 – sequential sales declines in FE and BE: ASM has guided for lower sales in both FE and BE. We have pencilled in a 13% sequential sales decline in FE and an 11% sequential sales decline in BE. The consensus is a touch higher in both BE and FE. ASM also indicated that the FE order intake should be comparable to 3Q (€ 93m) and that it did not expect an improvement in BE order intake in 4Q. We expect a € 90m order intake in FE (-3% q/q) and € 230m of new orders in BE (+5% q/q).

The consensus expects an order intake of about € 300m.
2012 – not as weak as feared: after higher-than-expected capex plans for 2012 from several semi players including Intel and Samsung, we have upped our 2012 forecasts for both FE and BE. While our previous forecasts were based on a 20% decline in semi capex in 2012, we now assume only 5% to 10% lower spending this year. As a result, we now count on flat FE sales (helped by ALD) and an 8% decline in BE sales, versus our previous projections of respectively -5% and -11%.

Conclusion:
We reiterate our Accumulate based on the persistent undervaluation of FE and the likely confirmation of the strength of the business in the 4Q release. The demanding BE valuation (ASMPT is trading at over 20x PE12E based on our estimates) prevents us from putting a Buy on the stock however. We lift our target to € 33 from € 23 on the back of our higher 2012 estimates and the brighter overall outlook. We value the FE at 1x sales or € 440m (€ 7 ps on a fully diluted basis) and the BE stake at 14x PE13E or € 26 ps on a fully diluted basis


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