has posted the latest circulation figures for Gazeta Wyborcza: the newspaper sold 258,975 copies a day on average in June 2012, down 9.8% y/y and up 4.1% m/m. Circulation of competitor Rzeczpospolita was down 17.9% y/y and 1.4% m/m, while Dziennik Gazeta Prawna was down 15.5% y/y and 1.4% m/m in the period. The overall market of daily newspapers in Poland was down 6.6% y/y in June 2012.
Our view:
The average monthly circulation of Gazeta Wyborcza remains on a downtrend, was slightly worse than the Polish press market in June, and better than main competitors’ results. The cumulated year-to-date circulation of Gazeta Wyborcza has fallen 15.3% year-to-date. The average monthly circularion in 2Q12 came at 257,702 copies a day, down 15.5% y/y, slightly better than our forecasted 18.0% drop in 2Q12. According to our calculations such difference may add around PLN 1.0m of revenues to our 2Q12 forecast of PLN 279.5m. Overall despite the June circulation dynamic was slightly better than we expected, year-to-date dynamic is greater than our model assumption for a 10.0% drop in fullyear 2012. We expect slightly negative reaction to the news today.