Whereas the forint and the koruna edged lower on Monday, the zloty closed barely changed in sight of the three week high although Adam Glapinski - NBP Monetary Policy Council member - said yesterday he might vote for a rate cut in November if the new inflation report confirmed deceleration of inflation on the ground of major economic slowdown. He thereby confirmed a statement from the latest meeting stressing importance of the new forecast. As we already noted, our scenario envisages two 25 bps rate cuts to 4.25 % taking place within the next three months.
Meanwhile, the Czech koruna weakened after the release of August construction and industrial output data which fell short of expectations; the former fell by 4.7 % Y/Y while the latter shrank by 3.1 % Y/Y. Although construction has been on a downhill trend for four years, a sharp decline in industrial production was surprising, especially in light of relatively favourable figures on industrial orders that had been released in previous months. Regarding today’s figure on CPI inflation in September, it was in line with market expectations as it showed a modest increase to 3.4 % Y/Y.