On Monday, Central European currencies saw a calm trading. The zloty only slightly weakened on the eve of a two-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC); the EUR/PLN currency pair thus lingered at 55 days moving average (4.12). Rate cut expectations further bolstered Polish government bonds and the yield of the 10Y bond hit a new all-time low at 4.40 % yesterday. The forint lagged behind its peers when it lost about 0.2 percent while the koruna was trading close to EUR/CZK 25.25 for most of the day to strengthen slightly at the end of the session.
Regarding the outlook for the koruna, we believe that the risks are skewed towards further weakening of the Czech currency. In addition to the uncertainty brought by US presidential elections, the accommodative stance of the Czech National Bank should weigh on the koruna as well as today’s data on Czech industrial production in September which fell short of expectations (-7.1% Y/Y vs. -4.5% Y/Y). Technically speaking, the next target is seen at EUR/CZK 25.38; if breached, the koruna might move to as high as EUR/CZK 25.64 (the maximum from 23rd July 2012).