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Czech Watch - 19 September 2000

19.9.2000 8:40
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So, the Cabinet finished its 2001 budget proposal and sent it to the Parliament. The government did not, contrary to our expectations, increase its GDP forecast for 2001. It instead cut its unemployment forecast by 0.4 percentage points that brought more than CZK 2 bil. in revenues. It is interesting that the Cabinet cut unemployment forecast just after the GDP data were published, although unemployment statistics is completely independent on GDP and is published on a regular monthly basis.
The prime minister indeed will not go to the US in October. He denies, of course, that the cancellation of his trip would have anything to do with activities of his chief advisor. He claims to be too busy to go to such irrelevant place as the US…
The Czech koruna had another roller-caster day on Monday, but ended flat at 35.50 CZK/EUR after weakening at 35.70 CZK/EUR during the day. Given that the floor-less euro traded a shade above 0.85 USD/EUR, the koruna reached all-time low 41.65 CZK/USD. Sentiment seems to be skewed against the koruna as emerging market currencies are being under sell pressure from large investment funds.
Czech bonds were very quiet on Monday, despite some morning activities on corporate bonds and longest governments. While corporates strengthened by half a spread, government 6.40/10 was on sale again, after some recovering on Friday afternoon. The rest of the day was very quiet, with no significant interests on any issue.
Current benchmark prices: MoF 6.75/05 100.45-75 (unchanged), MoF 6.30/07 96.50-80 (-10 bps), MoF 6.40/10 95.55-85 (-5 bps).

(Ondrej Schneider and Dalimil Vyskovsky)


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