The preliminary GDP figure matched our forecast, rising above the market consensus by 3.7% y/y in Q3. The growth for Q1-Q3 slowed to 4.0%. The economy remains buoyant, the slowdown occurred mostly due to higher comparative basis. As the industry strongly decelerated in Q3, the growth had to be ensured by other sectors, the CSO mentioned services and agriculture. The preliminary data are based on the production side, however, we may say that the rising private consumption was the main component of growth. Nevertheless, the investments, according to today’s preliminary report, still rose 2.9% y/y (or 4.5% when seasonally adjusted), which is stronger than we predicted although it is a slowdown from the last quarter. The growth was backed mostly by housing construction or by transportation and communication, while investments in manufacturing declined in y/y terms. The investment imports thus should be lower, which helps to improve the net export balance.
The revised GDP with detailed structure will be released on December 20.
The CSO also released preliminary industrial output for October. The figure came out better than we expected, rising 2.4% seasonally and working days adjusted, or by unadjusted 5.1% y/y. The industry thus corrected its recent slump, which fits better to the latest good foreign trade figures.
(Jakub Dvorak, CSOB)