The spokesperson of Telefonia Dialog, KGHM fixed line telephony subsidiary, said that the company would finance the acquisitions of smaller operators from its own funds and by borrowing up to PLN 0.5bn from banks. Telefonia Dialog aims at increasing its sales revenues from PLN 500m in 2006 to PLN 600m in 2007, primarily through M&A’s.
Our view: Telefonia Dialog has not identified any potential acquisition targets, but the list might be long, judging by its latest takeover of ‘vivid.pl’, an online record shop. Netia, with its market cap of PLN 2.0bn, remains a distant possibility, we believe. In fact, we view the risk of Telefonia Dialog overpaying for telco assets as high, considering: i) recent drops in infrastructure replacement cost due to rapid growth in new technology (WiMax replacing copper cable, etc.), ii) decreasing profit margins on many telecom services due to increasing regulatory pressure iii) insufficient cost controls and lack of experience in M&A’s at Dialog iv) moral hazard of Telefonia Dialog putting at risk not its own, but ultimately its parent’s (KGHM) money.
Nevertheless, we view the news as neutral for KGHM, until any decisions relating to actual acquisitions are taken. We reiterate our Hold rating for KGHM. On the other hand, the news could prove to be supportive for Netia. But, given the unspecified time horizon for any possible acquisition bid, we reiterate our Sell rating for Netia, based on the outlook for further deterioration in company earnings.