During the weekend Fed vice-chairwoman Yellen once more repeated that the economy does not yet warrant exit from stimulus, and Atlanta Fed Lockhart agreed, saying that there are no indications of wage pressures and excessive discussions on the exit send a wrong signal. However, this only confirms that the majority inside the FOMC sticks to its position. It is not yet clear whether it will be a risk-on day.
Commodities did very well at the end of last week, but start the week marginally lower, while Asian equities are mixed too. Chinese eco data, released over the weekend, were stronger than expected, but the news might have been overshadowed by signals that interest rates may have to be raised. Little news is available about Portugal that has now officially also asked the IMF for financial support.
The eco calendar is empty in the US and limited to Italian and French industrial production in EU. Therefore, data won’t be a driver, there are speeches of NY Fed Dudley and vice chair Yellen, both prominent doves, whose views are well known. The speech of ECB’s Weber might be more interesting as Weber will speak for the first time since the ECB took action last Thursday. Overall though, technicals may reign and a range-bound session, eventually containing some EUR/USD profit taking, is our best bet.