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D'IETEREN: Very tough comparables at Belron

D'IETEREN: Very tough comparables at Belron

22.8.2011 9:27

D’Ieteren’s 1H11 results will be released on Thursday 25 August at 6.00pm Brussels time, followed by an analyst meeting the next day at 9.30am.

Group:
Avis Europe will be classified under discontinued operations. Group sales are expected to rise by 5.7% to € 3,181m thanks to the solid performance of D’Ieteren Auto. The group’s REBIT margin should decline however by 50bp to 6.6% due to tough comparables faced by Belron. REBIT is set to fall from € 214.8m in 1H10 to € 208.7m in 1H11. We arrive at current pretax profits (group share) of € 174.2m (-1.8%) and current net profits from continuing operations of € 148.9m (+3.2%).

Belron:
Comparables were tough in 1H11 because of harsh winter conditions in 1H10 when organic sales growth reached 11%. Moreover in the US the number of miles driven fell by 1% during 5M11. We therefore count on flat reported sales (€ 1,484m) on the back of stable like-for-like sales, a negative currency impact of 1% and +1% from acquisitions. In 1Q11 reported sales were up 3% thanks to acquisitions (+1%) and currency fluctuations (+2%). We anticipate that the REBIT margin will have returned to a normal level of 8.8% in 1H10 after an exceptionally strong 1H10 when a margin of 10.0%was achieved. REBIT is therefore set to decline from € 148.6m to € 130.6m. We’ve pencilled in a flat net financial charge of € 14.0m for 1H11 to arrive at current pretax profits of € 116.6m (-13.4%) or € 108.7m group share (-13.7%).

D’Ieteren Auto:
Belgian new car registrations rose by 2% in 1H11. The brands that are sold by D’Ieteren recorded 10% growth however thanks to the success of VW’s new models and Skoda’s low CO2 emission models. We are forecasting 11% sales growth (€ 1,697.2m) and a 30bp REBIT margin (4.6%) improvement. REBIT is expected to rise from € 66.2m to € 78.1m. Net financial charges should decline from € 14.8m in 1H11 and € 13.2m in 2H10 to € 12.7m. Current pretax profits (group share) should therefore rise by € 14.2m to € 65.6m.

Guidance:
On 14 June management reiterated the guidance: current pretax profits (group share) should rise by at least 5% in 2011. We count on 5.7% growth.

Valuation:
Our target price is based on the disposal price of Avis Europe, a P/E11 of 12.0 for Belron and a P/E11 of 10.0 for D’Ieteren Auto.


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