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Further dark seance

Further dark seance

23.9.2011 13:32

Commodities markets experienced another gloomy session and extended previous losses on Thursday as the S&P lost 3.19% and effective US dollar cross rate gained 1.44%.
As regards crude market, the November contract on Brent lost about 4.5% and in late evening dropped even below 105 USD per barrel (USD/bbl). Nevertheless, market participants still perceive short-term fundamentals to be tight as the spread between 1M and 5M contract is about 3.8 times higher than a month ago. At the same time, it’s worth noting that the shape of the forward curve suggests that such a concern should fade away in a few months.
Today in early trading, Brent has erased some losses and the front month contract is currently trading for 106.7 USD/bbl.

Metals
Base metals complex lost about 6% on average on Thursday and copper was among commodities which were the most heavily affected by yesterday’s sell-off of risky assets. The three month contract at LME shrunk by almost 7.5% and today in early trading even breached 7200 USD per ton level, i.e. the lowest price on a record since the end of August 2010.
Precious metals complex was no exception yesterday and on average dipped by 5.8%. Gold outperformed its peers and its price eased by ‘only’ 2.5%.
We believe that factors which have supported the price of bullion in recent weeks (Greek crisis, worsened outlook of the global economy) are still in place and that the current sell-off is mostly driven by the strengthening US dollar. At the same time, we maintain our view that the price of gold should ease significantly in a long term.


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