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EMU: services PMI picks up slightly in November

EMU: services PMI picks up slightly in November

24.11.2011 9:02

According to the advance estimate, euro zone manufacturing PMI extended its downward trend in November. The headline index fell from 47.1 to 46.4, marginally below the consensus estimate of 46.5 and the weakest level since July 2009. New orders contracted for the sixth consecutive month and at the fastest pace since May 2009. But domestic and export orders fell sharply. Employment in the manufacturing sector stayed unchanged from October. National details show that manufacturing activity contracted for a second straight month in Germany (47.9 from 49.1) and the pace of contraction accelerated. In France, manufacturing PMI dropped from 48.5 to 47.6, the fourth consecutive month of contraction. Euro zone services PMI, on the contrary, rebounded from 46.4 to 47.8, while a slight decline (to 46.0) was expected. In the services sector, new orders continued to drop, but the pace of decline eased compared to the previous month. While the composite PMI picked up slightly compared to the previous month, there are few reasons to become optimistic as it is unlikely that the worst is over for the euro area. In the manufacturing sector, orders are falling sharply and employment is stagnating. Markit, the company responsible for the data, added that the survey data suggest the euro zone economy is contracting at a quarterly rate of approximately 0.6% in the fourth quarter.

Euro zone industrial new orders fell in September at the sharpest pace since late 2008. On a monthly basis, industrial new orders dropped by 6.4% M/M, while a more moderate decline (by 2.7% M/M) was expected. The annual rate of growth slowed from 5.9% Y/Y to 1.6% Y/Y. The breakdown shows that weakness was broad-based and led by capital goods (-6.8% M/M) and intermediate goods (-3.2% M/M). In the third quarter, production held up reasonably well, but is now slowing sharply. The scale of deterioration is shocking and raises expectations that the euro zone will slow in the final quarter of the year.


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