On Wednesday, Central European currencies posted yet another losses and amidst a heightened sell-off in euro zone peripheral bond markets weakened by about one percent.
Regarding today’s calendar, the main regional event has undoubtedly been the fresh release of Q1/2012 GDP in Poland. The Polish economy expanded by 3.5 percent in the first quarter which is slightly lower result than expected by the central bank (and us). Regarding the structure, the main surprise is high contribution of net exports. On the other hand, the contribution of investment lagged behind our expectations.
Let us remind that the relatively strong performance of Polish economy was among the reasons for May’s rate hike in Poland. The Minutes from the last meeting suggest that the decision on the rate hike was probably backed by less than 9 members of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC). That said, against the hike might have not only been the most dovish members like Elzbieta Chojna-Duch. Hence, a slight disappointment and expected slowdown in growth in the second half of this year could play in favour of our scenario that bets on stable rates throughout the rest of 2012.