In Poland, the main attraction beside European football championship (starting on Friday) is NPB meeting scheduled for Wednesday. The Central bank should stay on hold as it signaled in May that another rate change at its upcoming meeting was unlikely. This is also consistent with the latest release of macroeconomic data.
In addition to the GDP growth figures for the first quarter (which lagged behind the expectations of the NBP), the PMI and continued to decline to below the key 50-point level in May. April’s industrial output and retail sales also fell short of expectations. Our baseline scenario envisages that rates will remain unchanged for the rest of 2012, even though July’s inflation report may include new information in that regard.