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CEE currencies helped by Spanish rescue package

CEE currencies helped by Spanish rescue package

11.6.2012 10:57

CEE currencies helped by Spanish rescue package
Poland starts European football championship

The speculation about a rescue package for Spain helped to stabilise Central European currencies in late Friday afternoon. The EUR/CZK stayed below 25.40, EUR/HUF below 300 and EUR/PLN below 4.30. In Poland, the start of European football championship shifted attention from the euro-crisis for a while.

The Polish Economy was boosted by preparation works for the European football championship in recent years. Also thanks to that Poland was the single European economy that escaped post-Lehman recession. Access to EU funds allowed the government to plough around 20 billions euro (5% of GDP) to the preparation works. About two thirds were spent on infrastructure projects. Today, Poland has nearly 1,200 km of highways, nearly twice as much as five years ago. The question remains what to expect after the Championship?

Although in long term improved infrastructure usually attracts foreign direct investments and increases the growth potential, the immediate effect can be quite different. The Poles are probably about to face the slow-down in infrastructure project investment, which should be seen in slower GDP growth. Although several projects are still unfinished (for instance more than 300 kilometres of roads and Warsav Metro), these are going to be realised in much slower way.

To sum up we believe the growth should come down from 3.5% in the first quarter to 2.3% at the end of 2012.


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