CE currencies have firmed as risky markets players have appreciated the latest deal on the Greek debt. Interestingly, the forint was able to advance despite a rating downgrade delivered by the S&P and the zloty bounced despite weaker than expected report on retail sales. Recall that the October retail sales grew 3.3 % year-on-year, but this positive growth was reached only thanks to favourable calendar effects (there were two more working days this October compared to October 2011).
Today, the market focus might be again on Hungary. The Monetary council of the National Bank of Hungary is about to cut its base rate by 25 basis points (to 6.0 %) at its meeting. The stable forint, falling inflation, and particularly the predominance of doves in the monetary council should make monetary easing possible. The easing will most likely take place in spite of the fact that Hungary’s sovereign risk premium have gone slightly up (by approximately 50 bps for 5Y Hungary’s CDS).