The Czech koruna has finally joined the recent rally of risky assets and rebounded from its 3-years low. It seems that the Czech currency has been supported by hedging activities of Czech exporters, rather than the change in economic fundamentals. Meanwhile in Hungary the forint has continued to hover around relatively strong levels (below the EUR/HUF 290) while the zloty has remained little changed despite poor industrial output data.
Recall that according to the Polish statistical office the industrial output rose by 2.7 % y/y in April. This is clearly a better result than in March, but the growth was wholly attributed to higher number of working days. Working day adjusted data shows different picture - namely decrease of industry by 0.3 % y/y. Moreover construction output, which was down by 23.1 %, did not signal any turnover too.
Beside the IP figures the Polish statistical office published the PPI data. It appeared that the producer prices dropped by 2 % in April, which was more than market had expected. Overall, yesterday’s figures should further support bets on further monetary easing. Recall that we believe in another rate cut delivered already in June, though more important eco numbers are to come before the NBP meeting: namely retail sales on Friday and especially GDP details next week.