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EMU: M3 growth slightly up, lending remains depressed

EMU: M3 growth slightly up, lending remains depressed

3.1.2014 16:32

After a sharp slowdown in October, the annual growth rate of M3 picked up slightly in November. M3 money supply rose to 1.5% Y/Y, from 1.4% Y/Y in October, in line with expectations. M3 growth remained mainly supported by M1, led by overnight deposits (6.9% Y/Y). The lending data however remained extremely poor. The annual rate of contraction in loans to the private sector accelerated to -2.3% Y/Y from -2.2% Y/Y in October. Compared with the previous month, loans to the private sector dropped by €27B, following a €14B decline in October.

Weakness was mainly based in loans to non-financials, falling by €13B from the previous month, with the annual rate of contraction accelerating to - 3.9% Y/Y, from -3.8% Y/Y, a new record low. Loans to households dropped in November by €3 billion, following three months of increasing flows. As a result, the annual rate of growth slowed from 0.2% Y/Y to 0.1% Y/Y. Both consumer credit (-€2B from -€6B) and other lending (-€3B from €1B) from households weakened during the month, while household lending for house purchases picked up slightly, by €3B, following a €8B increase in October. Over the previous months, there were tentative signs of improvement in household lending, especially in mortgage lending. In November however, loans to households dropped again providing further evidence that any recovery will be slow and uneven. Lending to corporates on the contrary continues to worsen, falling at a record pace. As the economy is starting to recover, we hope that lending to non-financials will bottom out in the coming quarters.


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