Patria increased its CEZ target price from CZK 120 to CZK 140 per share yesterday; our investment recommendation was downgraded from accumulate to hold. CEZ’s strong stock performance in recent weeks fully reflects the positive expected short- and medium-term development with regard to both volumes sold (domestically and exported) and average selling prices. The prospect of international acquisitions and attractive POR adds to the stock’s attractiveness for investors. The long-term story may be less encouraging though; the currently low ROIC is not compatible with large capex outlays planned after 2010, and minority shareholders may also be increasingly less comfortable with prospects of continued state ownership. Nuclear decommissioning costs and spent-fuel-storage costs may increasingly become issues for investors as well.
Jiří Soustružník