The Polish zloty hit the 44-month high at 3.7490 EUR/PLN matching the upbeat performance of Polish bonds on Friday. The zloty got off to a confident start of the session as the EUR/PLN pair edged down to the 3.75-3.76 area within one hour of the opening on the back of bond market inflows. MinFin Zyta Gilowska provided the zloty with support as well by pointing out that realistically speaking Poland could join the Eurozone as early as in 2011.
This estimate is rather optimistic, given that even according to the government Poland will not fulfill the Maastricht deficit criteria before 2009. Nonetheless we believe that from the market’s point of view it should be fairly irrelevant whether the accession date will be set at 2011, 2012 or even 2013. The progress achieved over time in converging to Eurozone eco standards will be far more important than the timetable itself. Following an unsuccessful attack on 3.75 the EUR/PLN pair fell back to the 3.76 range just before the end of trade tracking bond developments once again. The eco calendar is empty today so the zloty should stay range bound just above the 3.75 EUR/PLN area today.
(CSOB - Investment research)