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PMCR - 3Q07 shipments under pressure

PMCR - 3Q07 shipments under pressure

18.10.2007 8:54

Altria (71 USD, 0,34%), mother company of PMCR announced its 3Q07 results yesterday, which included comment about the situation in the Czech Republic. 3Q07 has been particularly difficult for PMCR as its shipments decreased by 22.6% y/y in 3Q07. Overall total market declined by 9.2% in 3Q07, while it has been up 1.6% during 9M07. This situation resulted in continuous decrease of its market share by huge 8.5 pp to 49.3% in 3Q07 and was driven mainly by different timing of the price increases for PMCR’s low-end brands and its competitors’. PMCR expects to recover large part of this loss in the 4Q07.

Our view:
We see these results negatively and although the market consensus about shipments is not available, we believe the actual figures for 3Q07 have been below expectations, however the quarterly figures are sensitive to the timing of the price increases and therefore could bias the overall image of the market. The decline in 2H07 is generally expected, due to March 2007 excise tax increase, which has been most radical in the history. Adverse situation in the Czech Republic has been partly off-set by higher shipment in Slovakia. The news came out yesterday during trading session, but market didn’t reacted at all to it, as PMCR’s share price strengthened by 2.7% yesterday.

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