Actual (Dec): -7.4 % m/m, 2.1 % y/y
Consensus: 4.6 % y/y
Previous (Nov): 3.5 % m/m, 3.5 % y/y
The Hungarian industrial production fell in December and showed a weak year-on-year growth that did not reach estimates. Similar to December 2010 the sector was driven by a drop in exports across all branches, the KSH says. Also the decrease in German industrial output provide evidence of this influence. Moreover, the industrial sales data show that the domestic demand was decreasing during 2011 and was unlikely to give the sector support.
The Hungarian PMI was a touch below 50 in January and indicates that the sector may roughly stagnate at the beginning of 2012. The German PMI and good industrial orders also suggest that the Hungarian industry should not fall further and has chance to recover at the beginning of the year.