In the week ended the 9th of June, US initial jobless claims picked up again after a temporary decline in the first week of June. Initial claims rose from an upwardly revised 380 000 to 386 000, while the consensus was looking for a slight decline to 375 000. The less volatile four-week moving average edged up too, rising from 378 500 to 382 000.
We believe that the previous week’s decline was probably temporary and related to the Memorial Day Holiday. It is no surprise that the claims are again somewhat higher, as also the payrolls and unemployment rate indicate that the labour market is struggling to improve further after a strong start of the year. Continuing claims, which are reported with an extra week lag, surprised on the upside too. After rising by 52 000, continuing claims dropped by 33 000 in the week ending the 2nd of June.
Continuing claims fell to 3 278 000, from an upwardly revised 3 311 000, while a drop to 3 270 000 was forecast.