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MNB should stay on hold, Polish MPC member wants higher inflation target

MNB should stay on hold, Polish MPC member wants higher inflation target

28.8.2012 10:43

CE currencies were rather calm as London was on holiday on Monday. In Poland, dovish MPC member Chojna-Duch said that current CPI target makes monetary policy excessively tight. She proposed to target range or overall higher CPI range. Debates about overall higher inflation ranges are not rare these days as policymakers in developed world try to cope with low growth prospects. Nevertheless this is not probably the case of Poland, which as the sole EU country escaped the recession in the aftermath of collapse of Lehman Brothers. Although the domestic demand has clearly been slowing, economy is far from recession and the board is now full of hawks. Only two members (including Chojna-Duch) voted in favour of the rate cut at the last meeting and the rest of the board is nervous from being constatly above the inflation target. Hence, it is difficult to imagine interest rate cut sooner than by the end of the year, when we see inflation around 3% Y/Y.

Today, the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) will probably leave interest rates unchanged. We expect, however, rather a narrow vote. On the one hand, recent appreciation of the forint, deeper recession and market bets on a decrease in interest rates speak in favour of the cut; on the other hand, uncertainty related to the IMF talks will probably convince the board to keep official rates at current level. Therefore, we expect the MNB will leave rates unchanged at about 70% probability. ).


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