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Weekly CZK report: Rally extended on unlimited QE

Weekly CZK report: Rally extended on unlimited QE

17.9.2012 10:17
Autor: Tomáš Vlk, Patria Finance

The koruna has seen more gains this week as the global markets have rallied, supported by the Fed´s unlimited QE and other positive news. The local data was uninspiring for trading. All the CE currencies were boosted by the positive sentiment abroad.

The Fed has met the high expectations, launching another wave of QE. This time, there is no total amount set; the asset purchases will continue as needed to improve situation on the labor market. Monthly volume was set to USD 40bn, but it may be changed if necessary. Moreover, the pledge to keep rates low was extended to mid-2015 and the Fed will also continue with its Twist operation. The macro projection was worsened for this year, but the outlook for 2013-2014 is better than before. Market reaction to the Fed´s announcement was euphoric - risk assets surged, while the dollar has come under significant pressure.

However, there is not only the Fed behind the positive sentiment this week. There was some other good news, too. The German constitutional court rejected complaints against the ESM ratification and the ECB bond buying. Although the court has set certain conditions, the decision opens the door for the rescue mechanism to start to work. Moreover, Portugal achieved somewhat easier bailout conditions, which raised positive speculations about Greece´s negotiation with Troika.

The new macro data did not attracted much attention. In a repeat of last month, the US retail sales surprised positively and further supported the positive sentiment. Other data had marginal impact on trading. However, the markets showed a short-lived negative reaction to the Moody´ s warning that the US may lose their highest rating if the government fails to stabilize the public debt.

In the Czech Republic all the inflation, unemployment and current account figures came out in line with expectations and were neutral for the koruna. Next week, the PPI report will have marginal chance to influence the market. The CNB will decide on rates at the end of the month. It will probably join the trend of monetary easing set by the world´s major central banks. The issue has not yet tackled the koruna´s gains and in fact the strong FX rate gives the CNB another argument for a rate cut.

There are some important soft indicators on the next week´s agenda. Some interesting news may also come from Greece. The scheduled events have little chance to reverse the market sentiment boosted by the central banks. However, the rally has already been significant and the markets might take a breather if the news disappoints.

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