Poland, Wages in corp. sector (Sep): 1.6%y/y
Previous (Aug): 2.7%y/y
Consensus: 2.7%y/y, KBCS forecast: 2.7%y/y
Poland, Employment in corp. sector (Sep): 0.0%y/y
Previous (Aug): 0.0%y/y
Consensus: 0.0%y/y, KBCS forecast: 0.0%y/y
Bottom line: The September labor market figures add to a series of signs of economic slowdown in Poland. Nominal wages slowed down visibly and real wages fell at their steepest rate since January 2010, negatively impacting disposable income. Employment growth stayed flat in year-onyear terms for the third subsequent month. In the upcoming months nominal wages are unlikely to accelerate and employment is likely to remain flat, or even turn negative, as economic slowdown depresses demand for workers. The difficult labor market situation remains the main drag on private consumption dynamics. The weak labor market readings in September strengthen the case for an MPC interest rate cut in November.
Polish corporate sector wages were up 1.6%y/y in September, below consensus and our forecast at 2.7%y/y, compared to 2.7%y/y in August.
With inflation at 3.8%y/y in September, wages in real terms fell by 2.2%y/y (vs. 1.1%y/y decline noted in August). September marks the third consecutive month of falling real wages and the steepest rate of decline since January 2010.
Employment in the corporate sector remained flat year-on-year, in line with our and market expectations (and stable compared to August).