The majority relates to Benelux (notably buildings, infra), then Spain, and then Marine. Circa € 8m was already recorded in 1H12 and mgt. guided for a similar amount in 2H12, which are part of the € 50m. Circa 900 jobs will be cut, incl. 200 Benelux jobs that early 2012 were put in a flex-pool. For some time now, the Benelux and Spanish markets are depressed, and mgt. believes the local buildings segment will be worse in 2013. After completion of restructuring, Benelux should benefit from a good performance in industrial, export, and Luxemburg, and less/no losses in buildings, which should lead to earnings growth in 2013. Buildings exposure will drop to say 15-20% of Benelux sales (currently 1/3) through downsizing. Hence, mgt. has to chase less business to be fully occupied, so they can be more selective and chase attractive margin projects such as data centres and hospitals.
€ 20m impairment in Spain was expected:
Circa 22m in Spanish goodwill remains. Spain is profitable.
All other countries and units are developing favourably
The backlog at the end of 3Q12 was € 6.4bn (+12% y/y, org+M&A), driven by growth almost everywhere (even Marine), offset by a decline in Benelux and Spain. This means the mix is improving on margins, but the impact should be small. The backlog excluded the large leisure project in Poland, and suggests growth in 2013, according to mgt. The 2015 targets were repeated.
“Excluding restructuring, EBITA would have grown y/y”:
Although not specifically mentioned, this statement relates to organic growth and growth from acquisitions. Including restructuring, EBITA will decline y/y according to mgt. but they did not say by how much. We reckon with a decline of around 5%, which includes M&A, so the organic trend (including provisions) will be more negative.
The € 50m charge means € 0.57 cents cash outflow per share
Part of this was already recorded in 1H12, and another part may have already slipped into consensus for 2H12.
After having tried for several years to improve Benelux profitability through small steps, mgt. concluded that substantial downsizing in the buildings segment was the last remaining solution. Hence, today’s news, which is a stain on Imtech’s track record, but which we believe will benefit its business profile going forward. As such, it is a bitter pill to swallow, but eventually the patient (Benelux) should recover. The same goes for Spain, but the exposure to Spain is much smaller and so are the charges and expected benefits.
Estimates and TP under review.
Our 2012 estimates will include the aforementioned provisions, and we will not yet become bullish on Benelux 2013 margins as we first wish to see proof. We will probably knock of a euro from our current TP of € 29.