Erste Bank: BCR's management comments on integration outlook

According to Romanian daily Ziarul financiar, BCR management has stated that the bank will invest EUR 200m by mid-2008 in the Integration and Development Program (IDP). The program seeks to expand the bank’s territorial network from 478 to nearly 700 units and to open over 50 business centres for SME’s. The program, which involves the wok of 550 experts, has more than 40 projects in its portfolio, aimed to ensure both business development and functional improvements in the internal means of operation, which have in focus corporate and retail segments, risk management, reporting and controlling to the operations and IT areas. IDP’s goal is to strengthen BCR’s position as a leader on the Romanian banking market. The bank has therefore set out to extend the front-office capacity and distribution through alternative channels, contact centres, ATM and self-banking.
Nicolae Danila, the CEO of BCR, has also stated that in 2007 the bank intends to increase its net profits by 62%, and assets by 31% (according to RAS). The BCR president holds that speed is more important than perfection and proposes a set of principles for fulfilling the targets during the next two years.

Our view: Erste Bank has maintained its targeted net profit CAGR of above 40% for the 2006-2009 period, under IFRS. The guidance for net profit growth of 62% y/y in 2007 from BCR is based on results under RAS, unconsolidated. Erste Bank has also maintained its initial plans to spend some EUR 90-100m on integration (i.e. training, consulting) and to invest EUR 120m (IT, branch network) over next 3 years. The only new information appears to be that BCR plans to increase its network to 700 branches by 2009, while the initial plan was for 560 branches, but seems reasonable, given the strong competitive environment. We view the news as neutral.