The bank revealed its strategic plan for 2012, the bank targeting an improvement in pre-tax ROE from 27% in 2006 to 30% in 2012 and a reduction of its cost/income ratio from 60% to 40%.
PKO BP aims to keep its number 1 ranking in Poland, targeting 30-35% market share in key segments (cash loans, mortgages, credit cards). Most significantly, it targets an increase in mutual fund market share to 25-30% from approx 10% now. The bank also plans to increase efficiency via migration of clients to direct channels (inteligo) and by generating synergy from cooperation with Polish Post. The dividend policy was set at a payout ratio of 47%-50%.
Expansion abroad is to be mainly limited to Ukraine via organic growth of Kredobank, aiming for a position in the top 5, with the focus on retail lending. The level of investment is to reach US$ 35m this year and US$ 50m in 2006. Although of little materiality,
PKO BP’s plans to open representative outlets in London (and if successful Dublin) to serve Polish expats (offering mortgages) captured headlines.
Our view: The targets in
PKO BP’s plan were more ambitious than had been expected and there was a positive trading reaction initially (with the stock up 2.4% yesterday), which may continue today with the story picked up by Polish dailies. The bank’s targets are long-term (ie. for 2012) and they are only targets but we view the strategy favorably, in as much as it signals ambition, both in terms of profitability and market position, identifies key segments for improvement (ie. mutual funds), focuses foreign expansion (ie. on Ukraine), and sets a reasonable dividend policy. Creditability is still limited at
PKO BP, still without a permanent CEO in place, though the next supervisory board meeting on May 9 could finally take a decision on this.