The retail sales in July rose by 3.6 percent. This growth is below both market and our estimates. The positive result was helped by a higher number of working days. After the adjustment we can see that retail sales in July were growing by a slower pace than in June (1.8 percent).
High inflation still persists and eats up the growth of real wages.
Lower growth in retail sales is yet another proof of a continuous slow down of economy. The results for the past month are really weak. It should be noted, that the unemployment numbers are still low and that means a partial support for the retail sales. However, the unemployment is expected to go up. Slowing economy and favourable development of external inflation factors (mainly oil and food prices) are an argument for further monetary policy easing. We believe the CNB will cut the interest rates one more time before the end of the year.