Actual (Oct): CZK 25.5bn
Consensus: CZK 17.5bn
Previous (Sep): CZK 21.6bn
Although the trade balance surplus reached a very high level in September, it has even improved in the following month. The October reading is record high and beats expectations. Other good news is that both exports and imports accelerated. Year on year, they grew by 9.6 pct and 4.9 pct, respectively. Strong German factory orders showed that external demand has picked up in October. In contrast, Czech industrial output has slowed down further. The growth of imports has improved but we do not believe that the downward trend will change significantly.
The trade with vehicles showed a CZK 44bn surplus and is still the key contributor to the positive balance. Exports of vehicles grew by 9.8 pct y-o-y. Other source of the balance surplus are manufactured articles (CZK +5bn). On the other side we can see a deficit in trade with chamicals (CZK -12bn) and mineral fuels (CZK -11bn).