In spite of the depreciation of the US dollar, the front-month contract on Brent closed barely changed on Wednesday as markets remain nervous about the results of weekend Greek election and the overall situation in the euro zone.
Regarding today’s OPEC meeting, we do not expect material changes in the cartel’s policy. However, according to yesterday’s comments of several OPEC members’ officials, Saudis might be under the pressure to cut the production so that the cartel would produce 30 million barrels per day (mbpd) which is the official quota. We do not believe this is likely (i.e. the outright commitment to cut the production) – we think that Saudi Oil Minister Naimi wants anything but scare markets by saying that his country would reduce oil production. More likely, we expect he will repeat his traditional mantra, i.e. that the kingdom is ready to meet any demand (a kind of state-contingent policy which comprises of both cuts and increases in oil production) and that 100 USD per barrel (USD/bbl) is good price for both producers and consumers.
As a matter of fact, oil price shrunk by about 20 percent in May despite the fact that Saudis cut the production (according to the EIA and OPEC) by about 200 – 300 thousand barrels per day during that very month.
On Wednesday, gold posted some minor gains and breached 1620 USD per troy ounce (USD/toz) level after the release of US retail sales which came out weaker than expected. Hence, the price of the yellow metal continues to serve as good indicator of market bets on further round of monetary easing…