Polish inflation surges above 4.3 percent in June; Hungary to start negotiations on a stand-by loan On Friday, Central European currencies saw a mixed session. The Czech koruna closed barely changed between 55 and 200 days moving average whereas the zloty and the forint posted some gains. Yields of 10Y Hungary’s government bond fell by more than 20 basis points ahead of the start of negotiations on a stand-by loan from EU/IMF (the IMF delegation will arrive on Tuesday). As we have already noted, we expect that talks might be difficult due to new controversial measures announced by Orban’s administrative in recent weeks. Above all, official lenders might be worried about an introduction of the transaction tax.
Meanwhile, a figure on the Polish inflation for June surprised slightly on the upside of expectations (i.e., similarly to the Czech Republic and Hungary). As the structure suggests, the main surprise was counter-seasonal increase in food and non-alcoholic beverages prices (+ 0.5% M/M). Despite the European Football Championship, prices of restaurants and hotels rose more modestly than we have expected. The figure might have had an impact on the zloty. Recall that the market had started to bet on cuts in interest rates in months ahead. However, after the release of inflation figure, FRA 3x6 rose by about 7 basis points and the spread between WIBOR 3M and FRA 3x6 was thus seen at 6 basis points. We think that such expectations are premature. We expect that inflation will remain at heightened level in months ahead. According to our estimates, prices growth might return to the upper threshold of the central bank’s tolerance band in the end of this year.