KPIs: The key performance indicators brought mostly negative surprises. First, heavy churn continued in fixed voice (excluding VoIP, which adds to broadband revenues). Second, the firm reported an outflow of 4k fixed broadband users in 2Q12. Broadband ARPU increased PLN 2 quarter-onquarter to PLN 55, although in our view this is an effect of the growth in the VoIP subscriber base. In the mobile, TPSA showed strong growth in the pre-paid customers base and only 10k growth in post-paid. Taking into account that the post-paid subscriber base includes SIM cards dedicated to mobile broadband (which increased almost 50k in 2Q12), the real postpaid subscriber base (i.e. excluding mobile broadband) deteriorated in 2Q12. Mobile ARPU was in line with expectations.
Results: As a consequence of the above-mentioned factors, TPSA’s top line lost 1% y/y and EBITDA deteriorated 5% y/y in 2Q12, in line with expectations. The firm informed that its ICT revenues came in at approximately PLN 80m in 2Q12, which includes revenues related to servicing the Euro 2012 event. The bottom line was 18% below the consensus expectations for 2Q12, due to i) a slightly higher than expected D&A charge, ii) higher interest expenses and iii) a slightly higher effective tax rate. TPSA generated PLN 709m of free cash flow in 1H12, below the PLN 909m posted in 1H12. In 2Q12 alone, TPSA generated PLN 457m of FCF, down 11% y/y, mostly due to the lower operating cash flow year-on-year.
The guidance: TPSA reiterated its guidance on all lines for full-year 2012: other revenues to lose no more than 3% y/y, EBITDA margin in a range of 35-37% and adjusted FCF at PLN 2.2bn in full-year 2012. We see the guidance for profitability as achievable, although only at the low end of the guidance. Given the lower MTR rate as of 1 July, disappointing acquisitions at the fixed broadband service and further heavy churn in the fixed-voice service, combined with competitive pressure in the mobile segment, we believe the firm’s guidance for the top line and FCF could be overly optimistic for 2012.