2Q13 volumes declined by -1.2% organ. to 105.87m hl vs our and consensus expectations of respectively 102.83m (-2.3% organ) and 104.12m (-1.3% organ.). Revenue grew by 3.9% organ. to $ 10,587m which compares to our and consensus forecasts of $ 10,433m and $ 10,563m. Revenue per hl grew by 6.4% organically (on a constant geo-mix). Normalized EBITDA increased by 5.8% organ. to $ 3,895m (KBCS $ 3,734m, CSS $ 3,792m). Normalized net profit decreased from $ 1,935m to $ 1,504m (KBCS $ 1,753m, CSS $ 1,672m), partly on negative non-recurring financial charges.
North America: Volumes declined by 1.8% organically to 32.37m hl (KBCS 32.1m, CSS 32.24m). Sales to Retailers (STRs) declined by 3.6% in the US and the company reckons to have lost a 40bps market share. US Beer revenue/hl grew by 3.9% in 2Q13. Norm. EBITDA increased by 4.0% organ. to $ 1,840m (KBCS $ 1,730m, CSS $ 1,797m).
Latin America North: Volumes declined by 1.5% organically to 26.93m hl (KBCS 25.89m, CSS 26.97m). Beer volumes declined by 0.4% in Brazil and market share was flat at 68.1%. Revenue grew by 8.8% organically and Normalized EBITDA was up by 5.5% organically to $ 1,099m (KBCS $ 1,079m, CSS $ 1,088m). Latin
America South: Volumes declined by 0.8% organ. to 7.55m hl (KBCS 7.47m, CSS 7.07m) while revenue grew by 17.4% organ. Normal. EBITDA grew by 20.2% organ. to $ 233m (KBCS $ 254m, CSS $ 219m).
Western Europe: Volumes declined by 7.0% organically to 7.62m hl (KBCS 7.60m, CSS 7.83m). Norm. EBITDA was down 7.0% organ. to $ 310m (KBCS $ 302m, CSS $ 326m). CEE: Volumes declined by 6.1% organ. to 6.55m hl (KBCS 6.35m and CSS 6.47m). Normal. EBITDA grew by 3.5% to $ 101m (KBCS $ 90m, CSS $ 100m). Asia Pacific: Volumes grew by 5.1%
organically to 18.9m hl (KBCS 18.14m, CSS 18.65m). Norm. EBITDA grew by 27.1% organically to $ 157m (KBCS $ 173m, CSS $ 147m).
Mexico: Domestic volumes grew by 0.2% to 3.32m hl (KBCS 3.54m, CSS 3.79m) with EBITDA of $ 169m (KBCS $ 146m, CSS $ 181m) since the closing of the combination in June. ABI reckons market share was flat to slightly down in 1H13. EBITDA was up by 42% organically, helped by solid revenue per hl growth, cost synergies and the timing of sales & marketing spend.
Guidance: ABI repeated nearly all earlier given outlook comments except on capex where it is now guiding for a capex of $ 3.9bn for 2013 (vs $ 3.7bn before), due to the inclusion of Grupo Mexico. ABI repeated earlier guidance for the beer industry volume growth in Brazil in FY13 to be either flat or down low single digits. The company still expects solid industry volume growth in China. Revenue per hl is still guided to grow organically ahead of inflation. Cos/hl are still guided to increase organically by mid single digits, including negative FX. Distribution expenses are still guided to increase organically by mid single digits. Guidance on sales and marketing expenses is still a growth of mid to high single digits. Average coupon on net debt is still guided in a 4.8-5.3% range. Guidance on the effective tax rate is a 19-21% range.
Conclusion: 2Q13 volume performance was still slightly down organically, which was a significant improvement from the 1Q performance (-4.1% y/y). Revenue per hl performance continues to be very solid and EBITDA was better than expected. On the back of the improving momentum, with more relief to come next year from the World Cup in Brazil, we decided to upgrade our rating from Hold to Accumulate, with an unchanged € 75 target price.