CEE currencies profit from euro gains, NBP leaves rates unchanged

Yesterday, CEE currencies profited from better than expected PMIs as well as from euro gains. Currency gains helped also local bonds. Yields of Hungarian government bonds fell by 8-14 basis points and also Polish bond prices rose ahead of tomorrow’s auction of 5Y government bonds. Political frictions in the US Congress have not reduced the global risk appetite so far; nevertheless we cannot rule out that uncertainty stemming from the US debt ceiling debate will adversely weigh on the CEE region in coming weeks.

Today, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) held a regular rate-setting meeting where it left rates intact. Poland´s GDP grew by estimated 0.8 % y/y in the second quarter of 2013 and forward-looking indicators also suggest that the economy bounced off the bottom. Moreover, industrial data confirm promising start of the third quarter and certain (though only moderate) improvement can be seen also in retail sales. The softest spot in the Polish economy thus continues to be construction. NBP thus left rates at their all-time low at 2.5 % till the end of the year and the first move (upwards) occurs late in the first half of the next year at the earliest.