EUR/USD already felt heavy in the early part of the European session. This was only highlighted by the German ZEW economic sentiment survey, which showed an unexpected further decline in sentiment, sharp enough to put markets in motion, with EUR/USD reaching the 1.1910-zone from the 1.1940-zone in one spike lower.
There things stabilized for a while, but comments made in the afternoon by Dallas Fed governor McTeer added to the market anxiety over today's Greenspan speech, as he said that 'rates above 1.00 % would still be accommodative" thereby further making the U-turn of the Fed. EUR/USD spiked lower to day lows at the 1.19 zone, but only briefly. He probably wasn't the man they want to hear the signal from, as the market only wants to hear it from Greenspan himself. The limited reaction on McTeer may also indicate some pre-positioning ahead of Greenspan's speech today.
But the G-man himself would not wait until today and already yesterday fired a clear and unmistakable warning shot: "Banks are well prepared to deal with rising rates" and "deflation is no longer an item for the Fed", he will undoubtedly elaborate on all this today, but the tone seems to be for hiking rates.
This helped the USD again yesterday, but overall the dollar buying was remarkable orderly, causing gradual dollar strength, not really spikish price behaviour, again an indication of some market participants already well positioned ahead: EUR/USD fell below the 1.19 area to fresh lows at the 1.1840 zone by closing time. This level was maintained this morning.
ČSOB - Investment Research